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Retirement Plan Predictor
Enter your savings and planned spending to see how your portfolio draws down through retirement. The solid line assumes a steady return each year. The shaded band shows the range of outcomes across 1,000 simulated markets.
Balance at age 95
$435.3K
If returns are steady every year
Chance of success
63%
Of 1,000 simulated markets, money lasts to 95
Median at end
$202.6K
Range $0 – $1.6M
Initial withdrawal rate
4.0%
At or below the classic 4% rule
Portfolio balance by agetoday's dollars
Expected return Simulated median 10th–90th percentile
Year-by-year breakdown▾
| Age | Start balance | Withdrawal | Growth | End balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | $1,000,000 | $40,000 | $27,961 | $987,961 |
| 66 | $987,961 | $40,000 | $27,611 | $975,572 |
| 67 | $975,572 | $40,000 | $27,250 | $962,821 |
| 68 | $962,821 | $40,000 | $26,878 | $949,700 |
| 69 | $949,700 | $40,000 | $26,496 | $936,196 |
| 70 | $936,196 | $40,000 | $26,103 | $922,299 |
| 71 | $922,299 | $40,000 | $25,698 | $907,997 |
| 72 | $907,997 | $40,000 | $25,281 | $893,278 |
| 73 | $893,278 | $40,000 | $24,853 | $878,131 |
| 74 | $878,131 | $40,000 | $24,412 | $862,542 |
| 75 | $862,542 | $40,000 | $23,958 | $846,500 |
| 76 | $846,500 | $40,000 | $23,490 | $829,990 |
| 77 | $829,990 | $40,000 | $23,009 | $813,000 |
| 78 | $813,000 | $40,000 | $22,515 | $795,514 |
| 79 | $795,514 | $40,000 | $22,005 | $777,519 |
| 80 | $777,519 | $40,000 | $21,481 | $759,001 |
| 81 | $759,001 | $40,000 | $20,942 | $739,942 |
| 82 | $739,942 | $40,000 | $20,387 | $720,329 |
| 83 | $720,329 | $40,000 | $19,815 | $700,144 |
| 84 | $700,144 | $40,000 | $19,228 | $679,372 |
| 85 | $679,372 | $40,000 | $18,622 | $657,994 |
| 86 | $657,994 | $40,000 | $18,000 | $635,994 |
| 87 | $635,994 | $40,000 | $17,359 | $613,353 |
| 88 | $613,353 | $40,000 | $16,700 | $590,053 |
| 89 | $590,053 | $40,000 | $16,021 | $566,074 |
| 90 | $566,074 | $40,000 | $15,323 | $541,396 |
| 91 | $541,396 | $40,000 | $14,604 | $516,000 |
| 92 | $516,000 | $40,000 | $13,864 | $489,864 |
| 93 | $489,864 | $40,000 | $13,103 | $462,967 |
| 94 | $462,967 | $40,000 | $12,319 | $435,287 |
Illustrative only, not financial advice. Withdrawals are taken at the start of each year and the remainder grows at that year's return. Taxes and fees are ignored. Simulated outcomes usually trail the steady-return line because bad years early in retirement do lasting damage (sequence-of-returns risk).